Obama's Middle East balancing act tilts towards Iran

U.S. officials tell us Iran has extraordinary leverage at this moment, as the world waits for it to implement all of its obligations in the nuclear deal. Iran has begun to remove stocks of low enriched uranium per the agreement, but it still hasn’t made all of the modifications to its nuclear reactor at Arak or completed other tasks it promised in the deal. When Iran makes good on its obligations, most of the assets now in foreign banks will be unfrozen, giving the regime a windfall of tens of billions of dollars.

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Critics of the administration say the U.S. should take advantage of the power it has before that money is freed up. “Our maximum leverage to respond to serious non-nuclear issues is before implementation day,” said Representative Mike Pompeo, a Republican member of the House Intelligence Committee. “After implementation day, the Iranians get the money and the sanctions are lifted.”

Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator who is a vice president at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, said that the Obama administration sees the Iran deal as the one stabilizing factor in a region that is increasingly spinning out of control, and is therefore giving the U.S.-Iranian relationship top priority…

At the same time, though, the U.S. is losing leverage over Iran and its ability to influence the actions of the new Saudi leadership is also waning. The Saudis have given up on building ties to the Obama administration and are pursuing their own course until the next president takes office. β€œIt is the worst position for the great power, because everyone says no to us without cost or consequence,” Miller said.

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