Hispanic voters are not as crucial to Republicans as conventional wisdom has it. Romney would still have lost the election if he had won 40 percent of Hispanics. He would have lost, for that matter, if he had won a majority of these voters, something Republicans have never done. To win, Romney would have had to do a bit better than even Obama did among Hispanics.
It would make a real difference, on the other hand, if Republicans increased their share of white voters by only a few percentage points. RealClearPolitics has an interactive tool that allows for simulating different election scenarios for 2016. It suggests Republicans would win the popular vote and Electoral College if they took 3.3 percent more than Romney from whites — even if everything else about the party’s performance stays the same.
So maybe Republicans should just hunt for new white supporters? No mainstream voice has advocated that strategy, even if it sometimes feels as though it’s one the party has fallen into. A Republican surge among white voters and only white voters is more realistic than a Hispanic landslide for Republicans. But it’s still far-fetched.
Romney performed very well among whites, for one thing. What would help Republicans improve on his showing without affecting nonwhite voters?
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