The longer voters are willing to wait, the longer Rubio has a shot at winning the whole thing. Why? Because as Dan McLaughlin notes, the states that come after Florida trend more moderate. Rubio, building a coalition of establishment types, a good showing of conservatives, and others will start picking up significant steam.

But this all comes back to New Hampshire.

If Rubio fizzles in Iowa, unable to get third there, and then fizzles in New Hampshire, he starts to slow down significantly as voters and the press look to see who did better than Rubio in New Hampshire. If it is Chris Christie, we’re going to hear a lot about him as we head to South Carolina. And because of Christie’s terrible gun views, the south is going to consolidate even more quickly to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 100%. That makes it harder for Rubio to regain any momentum.

Like with Rudy Giuliani, when a candidate says he has a new and novel path to victory that does not include wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina and sees prime GOP country coming before Florida ever votes, the burden is on him to prove he has a real path to victory.