Keep in mind, October was the month after the public reports I commented on. At that time, Carson had about $11.3 million. The WSJ report means Carson ended October with about $10.6 million cash on hand. If expenses are straight-lined, he will close out the year with barely $8 million. But funding collapses rarely move in a straight line. Carson was heavily dependent upon small donors and those donations started drying up in October then Carson’s collapse in the polls plus Christmas holiday expenses would hint at a disastrous fundraising period. Carson will probably go into the first primary with barely enough money to eek out a presence. At this rate, by the first March primaries Carson will be out of the race.

Is that unexpected? I have my doubts.

Several of us have posted that the Carson campaign, back in October, was acting a lot like the dog that had finally caught the car. Carson wasn’t getting more proficient on issues and he isn’t an unintelligent man. This indicates that he simply wasn’t applying himself. Then there was the brief suspension of the campaign for a book tour. When you put that with the nature of direct mail fundraising a different picture emerges. The one thing that direct mail does is build a donor list and donors can be easily transitioned into fans and customers. Direct mail doesn’t make much sense for a presidential campaign but it makes a lot of sense if you are building a Carson brand that is intended to endure for years. That’s why a signed sketch of Ben Carson makes such a great direct mail piece.