Can Cruz’s team build the infrastructure to match the fanfare? This is where Rubio still maintains a sharp edge over Cruz, detectable by a mere glance at both candidates’ southern Nevada headquarters. On a Thursday evening, Rubio’s is packed with twelve Nevadans making phone calls, their faces featured in framed photographs along the walls as “top volunteers.” A few doors over, Cruz’s space is bare, with one box still unpacked and a stack of chairs folded against the wall. His Nevada political director, David McGowan, says the campaign doesn’t plan to begin caucus trainings until the new year. “But we’ll be doing them twice a week. When we’re making phone calls, all we’re hearing is Cruz, Cruz, Cruz, and maybe a little Trump. We’ll make sure they know where to go come February 23.”

“If Cruz starts running an operation like Rubio’s out here, it’s going to be interesting to watch,” says Erik Jimenez, legislative specialist at Argentum Partners, a lobbying firm in Reno. “Rubio takes Nevada personally. This is his shot to win an early primary. . . . If Cruz can catch up, it’s difficult to know where he goes from there.”

The wheels are in motion for a competitive contest between the two freshman senators. But not lost on either camp is Trump’s presence in the race. Though ground games and organization define sound political strategy here, and Trump has little to speak of in Nevada, it may not matter, according to Ralston. “I’ve been saying this all along,” he says. “Trump could get on Twitter the morning of February 22, tweet out caucus locations, and have people show up in droves. It could turn the whole thing on its head.”

Another challenge for Rubio, if he is coming into Nevada without a win in the early states, is the question of momentum, something on which he and his strategists have put a lot of emphasis.