When I read this Des Moines Register piece on Trump’s political organization, it suggests to me that Trump will underperform his polls, and his atypical voters will, typically, not vote.
At a meeting of precinct captains, “Many openly admitted to having a feeble grasp of the caucus process. The majority had never caucused before (only a third raised their hands when a Trump aide asked), much less been engaged in nitty-gritty campaign organizing.”
Getting political newbies as precinct captains is a sign you’re motivating new voters, but it’s also an indication your turnout operation may be weak. Also, he had only 150 precinct captains, far below the 900 target other campaigns set.
Trump’s campaign has six and a half weeks — and lots of money — to fix this problem.