Maybe the best scenario for the GOP establishment would be one where a large number of conservative candidates stay in through March, while only one establishment candidate remains. For instance, imagine a scenario where Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz and Chris Christie make it to the March primaries. Many Southern, highly evangelical red states vote in early March, so the three conservative candidates (I’m using this term broadly, since Trump’s support is more moderate on some issues, and tends to be secular and anti-establishment) could split that large red mass of delegates near the beginning of the calendar. Christie might win a couple more liberal states like Minnesota and Massachusetts while quietly cleaning up in some of the more liberal districts within those red states. When Ohio and Florida (large, moderate-leaning winner-take-all states) vote in mid-March, that will provide another opportunity for a more establishment-leaning candidate to grab delegates. And from there on out the conservatives have very little friendly territory to mine, while the establishment candidate has many blue states and districts stretching across the rest of the calendar. In that case, the early fracturing of the conservative vote and consolidation of the establishment would create a big advantage for the more centrist candidate and thus decrease the chances of a contested convention.

Now imagine the reverse scenario – there’s one ascendant conservative (say, Cruz) and multiple establishment candidates (Rubio, Jeb Bush and John Kasich) survive the carve-out states. This scenario would give Cruz a big advantage. If he were able to grab most of the delegates from that large mass of conservative states in early March while the establishment candidates split the left-leaning states and districts, Cruz could go into Ohio and Florida with a large lead.