Kentucky Senator Rand Paul will almost certainly fail to qualify for the primetime stage at next Tuesday’s fifth Republican primary debate, according to an analysis of poll data conducted by Bloomberg. Paul has been included in all four of the main presidential debates to this point in the campaign.

To qualify for the CNN-sponsored primetime debate, candidates must average at least 3.5 percent support nationally or 4 percent in either Iowa or New Hampshire, based on major polls conducted between Oct. 29 and Dec. 13.

Paul falls short on all three thresholds, but comes closest in Iowa, where he currently averages 3.5 percent support. If only one additional poll is released in each category by Sunday, Paul would need a relatively ambitious 6 percent in Iowa, 8 percent in New Hampshire or 10.5 percent nationally to qualify.