One of the most significant hurdles for launching an independent bid is gaining ballot access in every state — an arduous process that involves gathering lots of signatures, fast. The earliest deadlines are in states like Texas, where independent candidates need to get on the ballot by next spring.

That means Trump realistically has to start the process of launching a third party bid by no later than March, experts said.

“The decision will need to be made sooner rather than later because of the ballot deadlines,” said Clay Mulford, who advised Ross Perot’s third party run. “You’d really need to get started no later than probably the beginning of March.”

And in theory, Trump could also seek the nomination of an existing minor party that already has some ballot access such as the Libertarian Party. But it’s not unclear that any third party is a natural match for the kind of campaign that Trump has been running this this cycle.