Ted Cruz is the clear favorite to win the Iowa Caucuses. The latest poll showing him in first place is no blip, nor is it a surprise.

Seven Republican candidates were in Iowa this week, and five attended the “Rising Tide Summit” hosted by FreedomWorks, a conservative and libertarian grass-roots organization.

This conference, two months from Iowa’s caucuses, provided a good opportunity to assess the candidates’ chances in the crucial first-in-the-nation contests, to be held February 1.

Here’s our analysis of the top candidates, in descending order of likelihood they could win or finish high in the caucuses: