If Trump or Cruz pulled off such a feat, the proper collective action response for the establishment would be to tell three of these guys to pop off. Kasich may well exit soon after New Hampshire. But the other three may not have any reason to drop out. Christie, the least resourced of the three, will get all the money he needs from megadonor Ken Langone and his pals if he can put in a not-terrible New Hampshire showing. Rubio, Bush, and their affiliated super PACs will have preposterous amounts of money to work with, for as long as they want. Consider that Bush’s super PAC is currently doing the ad-buy equivalent of lighting money on fire for sport right now, and there will still be plenty left over.
The worst part about these establishment candidates is that they’ll all have pride. Mike Huckabee, Sen. Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, Carly Fiorina, and Ben Carson all know (hopefully?) that they’re not supposed to win. Rubio, Bush, Christie, and Kasich, though, believe that they’re supposed to win. Their likes always win—these are the rules! If Trump and Cruz run all over them through the first few states, they’ll continue to argue that it’s a fad and the “serious” candidates will soon have their opportunity. One imagines them still muttering this to themselves, in a cold-sweated state of delirium, even as they’re watching Trump accept the nomination at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland.
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