The rules, as noted above, are only one part of the equation. They direct the preferences of the various factions and interests into a final result. If everybody agrees with everybody else, then changes in the rules will not make much difference to the outcome. And the Republican party used to be quite homogenous. State and local leaders, Beltway elites, and average GOP voters all had a pretty similar view of who should lead the party. Thus, shifting the balance of power among these groups did not really influence the ultimate choice.

But the GOP’s homogeneity is breaking down, in important respects. There is now a yawning credibility gap separating Republican voters from the party establishment. Average conservatives do not trust their leaders in Washington to make good on their campaign promises. They increasingly sound like New Left liberals in their complaints about the ability of money to corrupt the electoral process. And they have grown cynical about the legerdemain of modern campaign craft.

This is a huge problem for the party establishment, because its power to guide the electorate was informal and based upon mutual trust, respect, and ideological similitude. These bonds are breaking down, and the establishment is panicking. If the voters are rejecting the elites, then the elites have lost their hold over the nomination.

Conservatives inclined to celebrate this breakdown should be cautious. It doesn’t alter the fact that the people at large still lack the capacity to make the best choices on their own.