“If you go back to the Howard Dean days or the Gary Hart days or the Ted Kennedy days, and in our party you can do the same, the only conclusion you can reach is that those at the top of the heap polling-wise are never at the top of the heap when the real races begin,” Al Cardenas, a Bush adviser and friend who did not attend the event, said by phone.

Nonetheless, despite the publicly optimistic outlook, the private mood among many donors and aides is grim. One, asked recently to name which three candidates will ultimately fight for the Republican nomination, did not even mention Mr. Bush.

There have been concerns that the Bush team made a strategic mistake when it moved Mike Murphy — a Republican image-maker and close confidant of Mr. Bush — to the super PAC side, to run what was originally billed as a shadow campaign. Now, because of rules restricting coordination between campaigns and super PACs, Mr. Murphy, who is known as the candidate whisperer, is unable to whisper to his own candidate, who could very much use the help right now…

According to someone briefed on the group’s thinking and speaking anonymously to reveal candid discussions, Right to Rise is also debating whether to explicitly attack Mr. Rubio, Mr. Bush’s former mentee and fellow Floridian, who is competing with him for donor support and will likely prove a formidable obstacle in the Florida primary.