We can look at this as a microcosm of the 2016 election on the whole. Trump has consolidated a base of support; the establishment is fractured in its support for someone to stand up to him. This isn’t a clean analogy, but it maps loosely. More than 40 percent of those without a degree in the CNN/ORC poll back Trump. Those with a degree can’t make up their minds.

If that holds, or if Trump’s grip on those without a degree strengthens, it’s not good news for those hoping he’s not the nominee. In 2012, turnout by those with or without a degree varied by state. In Iowa, 52 percent of Republican caucus-goers had college degrees, according to exit polling; in South Carolina, 47 percent did. The average across 20 states was about half-and-half. Thirteen states, though, had more people without college degrees turn out to vote than those with a degree.

In other words, a lot of people likely to vote in the primary are people who are likely to strongly back Trump.