It’s a development neither Cruz nor his allies saw coming, and according to recent interviews with a dozen prominent conservative activists, it has prompted some of those involved to step back and reevaluate their approach to the upcoming primary season. In recent meetings from California to Washington, conservative leaders have acknowledged a new reality: Rubio’s emergence as the establishment favorite lessens the urgency to throw their weight behind Cruz. In fact, they say, it could entirely neutralize the campaign by Cruz supporters to coordinate the sweeping endorsement their activist allies have long planned.
“You know how Obama changed the electorate? Rubio kind of changes the primary electorate,” says Ken Blackwell, the former Ohio secretary of state and a senior fellow at the FRC, who serves on the boards of directors at the National Rifle Association and the Club for Growth.
“If it’s a Rubio-Cruz battle, there are folks in different parts of the conservative coalition that Rubio energizes,” Blackwell adds. “And that could in fact block efforts to coalesce behind Cruz.”…
Goodman, now a candidate for state representative in Ohio, adds: “If it comes down to a Cruz-Rubio race, it’s a huge win for the conservative movement. . . . I think most people will be with Cruz, but secretly jumping up and down with excitement” about having Rubio as the alternative.
That scenario poses a grave threat both to Cruz and to the conservative activists scheming alongside him, whose common theory of the primary is predicated entirely upon facing an unpalatable opponent. Both publicly and privately, Cruz has predicted that establishment Republicans would yet again rally behind a candidate with limited appeal among the grassroots. The only way to prevent another “mushy moderate” from becoming the party’s nominee, he told a closed-door gathering of the Council for National Policy (CNP) in May, would be to unite around him.
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