“I think Rand’s missed a lot of opportunities because he’s chosen in some ways to water down his message in order to go for that election appeal that he was convinced he needed to win,” Kurtinitis said.

Kurtinis says Rand Paul has been too willing to cozy up to mainstream Republicans like Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Paul also has fallen out of favor with some libertarians for supporting increases in military spending.

The couple is now backing Texas Sen. Ted Cruz for the nomination. Cruz is surging, challenging political newcomers like Donald Trump and Ben Carson.

Rand Paul supporters like David Fischer, a co-chairman of his Iowa campaign, say they believe Paul is maintaining support from most of the liberty movement, and attracting new voters.

“We don’t obsess over where everybody goes from where they were four years ago. We’re just out selling Rand Paul’s message and attracting as many people to that as possible,” Fischer said. “The poll that matters is the one on caucus night.”