These respondents seem to be voicing support for the political newcomers as a way to express their disaffection with Republican leaders, past and present, for allowing policies that conservatives despise—Obamacare, the bank bailout, environmental regulations—to remain in effect, despite the party’s majorities in both chambers of Congress. The reality is that the congressional leaders overpromised, by pledging to do things that an opposition party can’t achieve without a veto- or filibuster-proof Congress. The party’s base sees this is a betrayal—a conscious decision by party leaders not to do what they’d promised.
It’s my belief that these mad-as-hell conservatives and populists will eventually migrate to a more plausible alternative, very likely Sen. Ted Cruz, while the conventional Republicans who aren’t so alienated will coalesce behind a more traditional candidate. The conventional wisdom, which I share, is that this will most likely wind up being Sen. Marco Rubio, although establishment-oriented Republicans still have a candle lit for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush or Ohio Gov. John Kasich. The intriguing event this past weekend was the decision by the Union Leader, the dominant New Hampshire newspaper, to endorse New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. The bellicose former U.S. attorney seems to have gained traction since the Paris terrorist attacks; perhaps the door has been cracked open for him.
If Republicans gather at their mid-July convention in Cleveland and end up nominating either Trump or Carson, I will dine on crow, most likely deep-fried, but I don’t expect to be reaching for the Pepto-Bismol.
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