With his coalition, Mr. Cruz would draw little or no support from around one-third of the national electorate. He would still be well positioned to win the caucus states on the Plains and farther west, but he wouldn’t necessarily find it easy to win even relatively favorable primaries in Southern states, like Georgia and Alabama, where “very conservative” voters usually outnumber “moderates,” but only by a little. He could be routed in the primaries of New England, the Midwest and along the Pacific Coast by a candidate with strong appeal among moderates.
This is not to say that Mr. Cruz can’t win with something resembling his current coalition. But it does frame what would be a long and narrow path to the nomination.
To win, Mr. Cruz would have a few options. He could do so well among “very conservative” voters that he could swamp his challengers, especially if multiple candidates with more appeal among self-described moderate voters split the rest of the field. He could broaden his appeal among the party’s center — for the “somewhat conservative” voters who tend to play a decisive role in primary contests. Or he could face off against a candidate who has even more narrow appeal than his own — for example, if John Kasich or Chris Christie won the New Hampshire primary. It could also turn out that “very conservative” voters represent a larger share of the electorate than in the past, given the broader trends.
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