The more candidates who are running, the more potential for chaos. Walker’s abortive campaign, for instance, may have been a result of unlucky timing and an overcrowded Republican field rather than anything major he did wrong.

Wouldn’t a Romney bid — in a field that still has 15 active candidates — invite even more chaos? Maybe, but under this theory, the GOP is probably unlucky to have wound up in a world where Trump and Carson are doing so well. Doing something to shake the campaign up could be a good risk, therefore. Furthermore, Romney would potentially begin his campaign with a lot of momentum. He was polling at about 20 percent of the GOP field when he was considering a bid last winter. If he started out in the same place now,4 he’d be at or near the top of the field, which could encourage Republicans to join the bandwagon and consolidate behind him.

Sound a little risky? Absolutely. So we’ll counter chaos theory with Occam’s razor. If Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio and Scott Walker have all failed to bridge the gap between the establishment and the grassroots, bringing Willard Mitt Romney out of mothballs probably won’t help.