Iowa poll: Trump and Carson tied at 27

Carson tends to do better, and Trump worse, with women than men. He is also especially popular with evangelicals. There are some indicators the race could swing further Carson’s way. Those who don’t already support Carson are far more likely to say they would be “satisfied” if he became the eventual nominee than for other candidates.  

The only Republican who has unambiguously improved his standing since September is Marco Rubio, though he remains outside the top three. The Florida senator’s support has grown by five points in New Hampshire, four in South Carolina and three in Iowa. Another candidate to watch is Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who takes the third-place spot in Iowa and South Carolina for the second month running. Cruz polls especially well with Tea Party supporters, “very conservative” Republicans, and, to a lesser degree, evangelicals.

The poll also contains evidence of a populist streak in the Republican primary electorate. As in September, candidates who have never held elected office (Trump, Carson and Fiorina) take over 50% of all support.