Bush, Kasich and Rubio are stronger than you think

Anyway, could Trump win some primaries with a plurality? That is, even with such a divided field, could he win with, say, 24 percent? Again, I think that is unlikely because of the Republican culture. The Republican front-runner may have to contend with an anti-establishment or far-right candidate, but, again, as recent history shows, at the end of the day Republicans consistently vote for good Republicans.

Does Trump have the same appeal as Mitt Romney? John McCain? George W. Bush? Of course not. But has the Republican Party become something wildly different, or has Trump momentarily tapped into a lot of angry people on the right who are dissatisfied with Republican establishment leadership and a lot of resentment and feelings of being left out among what passes for the Republican center? Again, none of that means Republican voters will ultimately nominate Trump to be the carrier of the Republican banner in 2016.

And while we are at it — and I know this post is getting a little long — I can’t imagine that Carson will win a single primary either. So far, I have completely missed what might be a plausible reason to elect Carson to be the next president of the United States. He seems like a good man and a distinguished fellow, but his appeal doesn’t satisfy Republican yearnings. Bush, Kasich and Rubio all have strong enough campaign infrastructures in place to launch respectable campaigns in January. Watch for those three to begin to outmaneuver Trump and others in the next few months. There is lots of talk about the establishment panicking, but it is way too early to panic. I will let Insiders readers know when it is time to panic.