All summer, for example, we were smugly assured that polls mean nothing this far in advance of an election. Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) campaign manager Terry Sullivan assured Politico: “Show me the candidate who was first place in August who ended up winning in February.”
I hope Rubio’s advisers are as sure about this as they were about amnesty being a big hit with voters.
Then it was September, and Trump was still in first place, so Rubio boasted to CNN, “We want to be in first place in February, not in August or September.”
The way things are going, at some point, Rubio’s line will have to be, “We want to be in first place in March, not in February. No, wait! We want to be first place in June, not in April.”
In fact, most candidates who were in first place the summer before an election year went on to be the nominee. Luckily, Politico is not a website primarily concerned with politics or it might have known this.
Among them: Ronald Reagan in August 1979, Walter Mondale in August 1983, Michael Dukakis (tied for first) in August 1987, Bob Dole in August 1995; George W. Bush in August 1999 and Mitt Romney in August 2011.