Will Ted Cruz pick up Trump’s supporters if the mogul starts to fade? Many, if not most, reporters seem to think so. Cruz himself may think so. The data, however, strongly suggest this a fool’s errand.

As I’ve written elsewhere (here, most recently), Trump supporters come from all factions of the GOP. Indeed, most polls show that Trump runs better among self-described moderates than among very conservative voters.

Cruz, however, has always been a candidate of the Tea Party/very conservative base. Virtually every poll shows that he is best thought of by very conservative voters, who number about a third of the party nationwide. Moreover, so far he draws almost all of his support from self-described Tea Party voters who are an even smaller number. Despite what the media tell you, the polls are clear that Tea Partiers and very conservative voters are a minority within the GOP by a large margin.