Watch out, Joe Biden: Polls aren’t kind to candidates who enter late

The Joe Biden buzz seems to be getting louder by the day. A Biden presidential run would be bad news for Hillary Clinton — even though he’s sitting in third place in Iowa, New Hampshire and national primary polls, behind both Clinton and Bernie Sanders. But if he runs, will the vice president get a big announcement bounce?

Let’s look at nine serious primary candidacies since 1980 for candidates who could be defined as late entrants. I’m mostly using the same list that my colleague Nate Silver used in 2011 when trying to determine the “price” of entering late. Ominously, none of the candidates Nate looked at won the nomination, nor did Rick Perry win his 2012 bid, which I’ve added to the list. Nate defined a late entrant “as a candidate who began raising money at least one quarter later than the average of the other candidates in his party that year.” If Biden gets in, he’ll meet that definition; Biden hasn’t fundraised for a potential 2016 bid.