As I noted in a previous column, while the conventional wisdom is that the GOP always ends nominating the establishment candidate, the math actually favors the anti-establishment candidate. In the 2012 primary, the anti-establishment camp garnered more votes than the establishment candidate, a fact obscured by there being two anti-establishment candidates. And, if anything, the GOP’s mood is even more anti-establishment this time around.
Add to that the fact that Ben Carson is not only riding high in general polls, and not only riding high in early state polls, but has positively Soviet-like approval ratings among Evangelicals, a key GOP voting bloc. Add to that the fact that he has none of the other two anti-establishment candidates’ obvious pitfalls — Fiorina’s decidedly mixed business record, which will undermine her claim to being Ms. CEO-fix-it once voters hear more about it, and Trump’s, well, Trumpness.
Put all those things together, and Ben Carson has a clear path to the nomination.
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