McConnell is less concerned about restive conservatives than about a Republican winning the White House and protecting endangered incumbents in swing states such as Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. That means forging deals that avert crises, even though they may incense the far right…

“McConnell’s focus will be on having a functional governing majority in Congress so we can get things done that are important without doing things that are detrimental,” he added.

There is a growing sense among Republicans that McConnell will be the one to work with Democrats to pass a yearlong funding bill and debt-limit increase, because McCarthy has to worry about the newly emboldened House Freedom Caucus.

“I think McCarthy is going to be constrained by the force of the House Freedom Caucus. Clearly they have assumed a commanding role I don’t think any faction of a party has had since the Democrats were confronted by the boll weevils in 1981,” Ross K. Baker, a political science professor at Rutgers University, said of conservative Democrats who rebelled against their leadership 35 years ago to support then-President Ronald Reagan’s agenda.