Bobby Jindal could still win Iowa

The case against Jindal: He has only 3 percent in the Real Clear Politics average of Iowa polls. And some social conservatives have fallen flat in Iowa — Gary Bauer in 2000 and Michele Bachmann in 2012, for example. There’s also a lot of competition for the religious vote this year. In our graphical representation of the factions that make up the GOP field — what we call the five-ring circus — Jindal shares that space with Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Huckabee and Santorum.

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But again, there’s that history of late surges. There’s also the fact that very conservative candidates have tended to outperform even their final polling averages.

And beneath the headline horse-race numbers, Jindal is making noise. His net favorability rating (favorable minus unfavorable) among Iowa Republicans is fourth-best in the GOP field, according to an average of the three live-interview polls conducted over the last month (by the Des Moines Register, Loras College and Quinnipiac University).

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