Poll round-up: The biggest winners and losers after the second GOP debate

The “narrative” coming out of CNN’s Republican debate last week has been that Carly Fiorina notched another victory, in part by crushing Donald Trump. Here at FiveThirtyEight, we take a lot of shots at political media narratives, so it seems only fair to point out that, in this case, the narrative is right: Eight national polls of GOP voters have been conducted related to the Republican race for president since the debate, and they show a couple of clear winners and losers — Fiorina won; Trump lost.

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Before we get to that, though, let’s be clear that we’re still talking about polling several months before any voting takes place; a lot can — and will — happen before the Republican nomination is wrapped up. And just as we said after the Fox News debate, it’s better to look at the aggregate of polls (that’s why I waited more than a week to write this). Finally, to control for house effects — a pollster’s tendency to find results that favor one candidate or another — I’m comparing post-debate surveys to the most recent pre-debate poll by the same pollster (i.e., Quinnipiac to Quinnipiac), as long as the “before” poll was conducted within a month of the Sept. 16 debate.

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