The message—that simple solutions exist, but other leaders lack the strong will to implement them—was a central aspect of Reagan’s appeal and is key to understanding the Trump phenomenon. But in the long term it won’t pay off for Trump as it did for Reagan because of two major differences between the 1980 election and the 2016 election: the opposing candidates and the voters’ mood.

Reagan’s message worked beautifully against Jimmy Carter in 1980 because it drew on their differences. Carter’s speeches as president emphasized that there were no simple solutions—restoring America’s confidence and prosperity, he said, would take years of hard work and sacrifice (most memorably, he told people to turn down their thermostats and drive less). It was very refreshing for voters to hear someone saying the opposite. It was also easy for Reagan to paint Carter as weak and vacillating. Carter appeared utterly powerless to resolve the Iran hostage crisis, and his pursuit of Cold War detente had been undermined by the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Despite Carter’s distinguished Navy career, even his personal image exuded weakness, as exemplified by the media’s fixation on how a “killer rabbit” had startled him on a 1979 fishing trip.

Donald Trump is trying the same tactic, deploying an arsenal of colorful insults against his opponents. But while Jeb Bush has played into Trump’s hands with his inability to give clear answers to questions about immigration and the Iraq War, most of the other Republican candidates mirror Trump’s tough-guy approach, advocating a strong, interventionist military and a hard-line policy on immigration.