Why North Korea's collapse is inevitable

To say that it will be a humanitarian disaster is an understatement — virtually all of North Korea’s inhabitants are malnourished. But it will also be a security disaster, as countless weapons go unaccounted for, and the society devolves into anarchy. And of course, there’s the question of nuclear weapons.

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China will want to preserve its interests and keep a buffer between its borders and the American presence in South Korea. It will be reluctant to let international aid (an effort that will, by necessity, be led by the U.S.) into the country. At the same time, it will also be extremely reluctant, if not unable, to take on that duty itself.

We know that there have been talks between Chinese, South Korean, and U.S. leaders about contingency plans in the event of a North Korean collapse, but it looks like the talks stayed at the drafting stage. This is not good enough. This is not nearly good enough. History teaches us that governments are inevitably ill-prepared for catastrophic contingencies, even when they can be anticipated (and this one certainly can). It is not an exaggeration to say that it can make the difference between life and death for millions of people whether the international community has its act together when North Korea collapses.

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