Right now, between 75 percent and 80 percent of the Republican electorate is not supporting Trump – and there are 10 candidates bunched up, from Chris Christie at 3.3 percent to Jeb Bush at 10.7 percent. As the field gets smaller, it will allow another candidate to surpass Trump.
And this assumes that Trump remains where he is. If this election follows the pattern of the last two Republican nomination battles, he’ll collapse as people begin to follow the race more closely.
On Aug. 20, 2007, Rudy Giuliani led the Republican pack with 28.2 percent of the national vote, and a surging Fred Thompson was closing in with 17 percent. When the dust settled, Giuliani didn’t claim a single delegate, and Thompson dropped out of the race even before Giuliani did.
Even later in the last presidential cycle, Rick Perry peaked at nearly 32 percent in the national average as late as Sept. 12, 2011, before collapsing.