Candidates in Trump's position have a terrible track record

Now, you might say that Trump’s lead, however slight, is more impressive with 17 candidates vying for the Republican nomination. Here’s the thing: We’ve had large fields before, even if not quite as large as this one. The 1988 Democratic field, 2000 Republican field and 2008 Republican field each featured more than 10 candidates, for instance. In 2000’s crowded GOP field, George W. Bush still managed to run up the margin.

The non-Trumps are earning about 80 percent of the vote. That’s a bad sign for him. The percentage of the vote that Trump is now earning in Iowa and nationally isn’t indicative of a front-runner who is particularly likely to win the nomination.