Rubio won the debate last night

But it was Rubio who emerged victorious. He made the most of each question, demonstrating not only a grasp of detail but also an ability to deliver his views cogently and succinctly. He displayed empathy. And he seized an opportunity to distinguish himself from Donald Trump: not by engaging the populist billionaire directly, but by pointing out that Trump donated to his primary opponent, then-establishment-Republican Charlie Crist, in 2010.

Rubio has never been a poll leader, and indeed he’s seen some decline in his numbers, as others have, since Trump began enacting the revenge of the radical middle earlier this summer. My theory has always been that Rubio wouldn’t break out until later in the campaign, sometime in November or December when real people who live normal lives actually start paying attention to the race. His performance Thursday gives me no reason to modify my theory. In a change election, voters have displayed a preference for freshness, youth, optimism, likability, and approachability. Any of the candidates could strive to acquire these qualities. Marco Rubio already has them.