Hardliners are well prepared to control public opinion in the wake of the nuclear deal. They will likely refrain from congratulating Rouhani and the negotiating team for signing the agreement, instead focusing on its “irrelevance” to economic improvement — even at the risk of exacerbating public disappointment if the people do not see tangible change in their living conditions.

The deal’s domestic impact should also be viewed through the lens of Iran’s next two hardliner-controlled elections: for parliament and the Assembly of Experts, both set to be held next February. On June 24, Guardian Council secretary and prominent hardliner Ahmad Jannati was chosen to head the committee that will supervise those elections. On May 19, he warned about high-ranking officials (namely those who are close to Rouhani) who intend to run in the elections even though they do not believe in velayat-e faqih, the doctrine granting the Supreme Leader full authority over all aspects of governance. “But so far, God has blessed us and prevented them from achieving their goal,” he concluded, likely signaling that the Guardian Council will massively disqualify candidates who share political affinities with the president.

The nuclear deal is a significant achievement for Rouhani, but the country’s attention will now be diverted to various economic challenges and internal political disputes. Rather than empowering the president for his two remaining years in office, dealing with these issues might exhaust Rouhani’s team to the point of paralysis.