The Iran nuclear talks: Failure was not an option

In this game of chicken, the Iranians probably calculated that if the talks collapsed the following might happen:

1.) Iran could selectively endorse those provisions of the April 2 “Framework Deal” that favored Tehran’s interests, thus appearing cooperative despite the failed talks. 2.) The international coalition that had sustained sanctions would soon fray, removing any further impetus for Iran to compromise. 3.) Iran would then be well-positioned to pursue enrichment without suffering the intrusive inspections regime that would have been imposed by a negotiated agreement. 4.) The U.S. then would have to choose between a policy of containment and going to war with Iran. 5.) If the U.S. resorted to force, Iran’s nuclear program would absorb a tremendous blow, but it would probably be rebuilt with the full support of the Iranian populace and sympathy from much of the international community.

Iran’s leaders believed that a failed deal could be better for Tehran than for Washington.

This perception was hardly unreasonable.