In place of the original plan — the one before the governor was battered by Bridgegate and the bottom fell out of his poll numbers — is a bank-shot strategy, a narrowly tailored approach that leaves Christie with little room for error.

The hope, according to advisers — who spent the weekend in a flurry of last-minute planning meetings — is that by exceeding expectations in debates and town hall events, and by performing well in a few select primary contests, he can reestablish himself as a top-tier candidate.

“Once he gets that momentum,” said Dale Florio, a leading Republican lobbyist in New Jersey and a staunch Christie ally, “you’ll see the whole dynamic of the race change.”

There is no state more central to the governor’s strategy than New Hampshire. It’s famous for its tradition of town hall meetings, which happen to be the governor’s signature event back home — and the preferred format he’s used throughout his two terms to promote his agenda. The state’s politics also work in Christie’s favor: it’s a Northeastern locale with a long history of favoring more moderate, independent-minded Republicans like Christie, and also has an open primary system, allowing independents and members from other parties to vote in the GOP primary.