If it's Marco Rubio against Jeb Bush, bet on Jeb

Bush can play the experience card pretty hard on Rubio. In his announcement speech, Bush made an argument for governors like himself over senators like Rubio, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and Lindsey Graham, saying that he didn’t have a hand in making Washington the mess that it is. Bush can personalize this critique even more with Rubio: He can imply that Rubio is as unaccomplished as Barack Obama was in 2008.

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And the fact is that Rubio talks about lots of ideas, but he hasn’t translated many of those ideas into law. His most notable legislative endeavor was a failed and detested reform of the immigration system.

Rubio has an okay relationship with the GOP’s donor class, but Bush has a better one. Wall Street loves Bush. Meanwhile, back in 2008, Rubio was all aboard for Mike Huckabee, the candidate most hated by the GOP’s donor class and by much of the conservative commentariat. Bush will not be the candidate of the Tea Party, but that’s also given him freedom to embrace issues like religious liberty in a way fewer Republicans are willing to try. And he’s conservative enough to win the primary.

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