“I could always be wrong,” the scientist said. Statistically, he added, it could be about a 20% to 5% chance, depending on what he might be wrong about.
That’s how you pass the nut test: by admitting you could be wrong.
And that’s how a climate denier finally convinced me, once and for all, that climate science was on pretty safe ground. IPCC reports — signed even by countries with a lot of interest in pretending global warming is baloney — have only strengthened the case since I cracked the first one open.
So maybe the lesson here is that rather than coming to you like the voice of God, admitting you might be wrong is a long journey, one that takes you to the point where you can try applying a little skepticism to your fellow doubters.
For that reason, I suspect that Pope Francis’ encyclical isn’t likely to miraculously convert climate science naysayers.