First, he presumed his entry would keep others out. It may have kept out Romney v.5.0, but that was it. Bush team members were rather public that they hoped his early announcement would keep Rubio out. It did not.

When Rubio got in, they presumed they could lock down Florida donors. They did not. They then presumed they could snag the national mega-donors. They could not.

In fact, three of the mega-donors, in separate conversations with me, tell me that Jeb hit them in the same sweet spot Romney did and, given Romney’s campaign, they are less likely to support Jeb because they feel as comfortable with him as they did Romney. Romney’s shadow hurts Jeb.

Another problem Jeb has is that he snapped up way more consultants than he needed in order to keep them from helping other candidates. The only thing these consultants are good for is bleeding a candidate dry, which is what they are doing to Bush.