A super PAC backing former Florida governor Jeb Bush is likely to fall short of collecting $100 million by the end of this month, despite widespread expectations that the group will hit that record-breaking sum, according to people close to the operation.

The exact size of the war chest is closely held, but two individuals familiar with internal discussions believe the total that the Right to Rise super PAC will report in mid-July could be substantially lower than the nine figures that senior Republicans have anticipated.

That would be a major psychological blow for Bush’s operation, whose fundraising prowess has raised expectations about how much cash it has been amassing. Bush’s schedule for the last five months has been dominated by high-priced fundraisers for the super PAC, helping the group stockpile tens of millions.