Bush’s new tone may be a preview of what’s to come as the primary campaign gets under way. “It’s pulling back the curtain on what will likely be the true nature of the campaign he’s going to run,” says one unaffiliated GOP operative. “It’s a clue that we could expect a somewhat negative campaign in the future —mainly because of the fact that his negatives are already so high in the Republican electorate. He needs to find a way to get the others there.”

“He’s being more realistic about what a Republican primary will be like with the amount of candidates involved,” says Ron Bonjean, a veteran Republican strategist. He says Bush is wise to hint at a pessimistic campaign now, rather than flip abruptly from sunshine and rainbows to full-blown mudslinging late in the primary season. That way, “When he does have to be negative, he’s already provided the pivot point,” Bonjean says. “And he’s done it early.”

Bush has been paying lip service to the politics of joy ever since his first flirtations with a presidential run last year. “The decision will be based on, can I do it joyfully?” he said in January 2014. “I think we need to have candidates lift our spirits. It’s a pretty pessimistic country right now.” In April 2014, he promised to push a “hopeful, optimistic message” and to avoid “the vortex of the mudfight.” In an interview with the Wall Street Journal last November, he talked about the “joy in [his] heart.”