What about Gov. Scott Walker? When I talked him up in February, he was fresh off his strong performance in one of the first Iowa cattle calls, and even today he holds a precarious first-place position in Iowa polls. But his quick rise was blunted by a series of wobbly moments: saying he was ready for ISIS because he fought unions, inelegantly dodging a question about evolution and redefining the meaning of “flip-flop” to exempt any utterance made by a non-legislator.

In a vacuum, each individual gaffe is not fatal. But when you’re trying to scrounge up enough cash to avoided being drowned by the Bush machine, such mistakes keep donors from betting it all on you. I’m not being theoretical; the Koch brothers have signaled that Walker is their personal favorite, yet their plan is to spread their money around several candidates.

Bush may not entirely dazzle either. He won’t coast quite like Hillary. Just like in 2012, several in the GOP pack will get their 15 minutes as frontrunner—we’ll probably have a day when even Ben Carson looks serious. A debate quip here, a poor straw poll finish there, and boom, suddenly there will be “AmBushed” headlines and hashtags galore. But once the new leaders take their turns being hazed by the media, questions will be raised anew whether they were ready for their close-up—and conservative voters will flinch. Lacking a strong challenger that can consolidate the Right, Bush’s steadiness will be sufficient to hold on to his Establishment support and his fat war chest, helping him outlast the pack just like Mitt Romney, John McCain and Bob Dole.