The comparison to Bush is one of the biggest reasons to expect a Christie surge. Bush and Christie both occupy the establishment region of the party. This side of the party provided much of Mitt Romney’s support four years ago. Currently this wing favors Bush over Christie, judging by polls.

But watch Bush on the campaign trail, and he doesn’t come across as a strong candidate. Nobody looked worse in Oklahoma City than Jeb. It almost seemed as if Jeb didn’t want to be running. Similarly, someone who took the race seriously would probably prepare for a question about the Iraq War — especially if that candidate’s brother had launched the war. But Jeb clearly had not prepared for that question before Fox News’ Megyn Kelly asked it.

Jeb’s 15 percent nationally and double digits in New Hampshire are not a sign of strong support, but of name recognition. As the campaign heats up, expect that figure to drop. The Jeb backers will scatter amidst this crowded field, but Christie will likely be the biggest beneficiary of Jeb’s collapse.

All these factors point toward a Christie surge, following some more town halls and the first debates.