Much of the angst among Republicans is derived from the poll’s recent failure to predict the Republican nominee or even the winner of the caucuses. In 2007, Romney poured considerable resources into winning the straw poll, only to lose both the state and the Republican nomination. And in 2011, Michele Bachmann seized the top slot in the poll — but her candidacy fizzled immediately thereafter.

Some candidates in recent years have even found their participation in the straw poll to be politically fatal. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty spent an eye-popping $1 million in 2011 on organizing for the event, but dropped out of the race when he posted a disappointing third-place finish.

The Iowa GOP has made a slew of changes to correct some of the straw poll’s shortcomings and make the event more attractive to candidates. There will no longer be an auction for prime booths at the gathering, a cost-saving measure for campaigns, and the poll will be held in a new location in Boone, Iowa.

“We doing a lot of things at the state party to make it as appealing as possible,” said Hoefert.