“I’m running because of what you see on television, I’m running because I think the world is falling apart, I’ve been more right than wrong on foreign policy,” he said on “CBS This Morning,” when asked if he was running because he was unimpressed with the rest of the field (and appearing to dispense with the pretense that he hasn’t decided whether to jump in). “It’s not the fault of others, or their lack of this or that that makes me want to run, it’s my ability in my own mind to be a good commander-in-chief and to make Washington work.”

Graham, who is one of the Senate’s leading national security hawks, would be a longshot in the crowded Republican presidential field but could be influential in pressuring the other contenders on foreign policy issues. In recent weeks, the chances of his running, according to Graham, have gone from 91 percent to “98.6 percent” to 99.9 percent. He has also staffed up his exploratory committee.