Despite Rubio and Bush’s surface similarities, their bases of support are surprisingly distinct. Bush remains the clear favorite among Republican centrists, holding onto a slim plurality of support in most national polls thanks to his establishment connections. What’s forgotten about Rubio, especially since his ill-fated immigration reform advocacy, is that he’s still the favorite of many tea-party conservatives.
This week’s CNN/ORC national survey of GOP voters found Rubio leading Bush, 14 percent to 11 percent, among Republicans who identify with the tea party. But the same poll showed Rubio trailing 20 percent to 7 percent among those who don’t. In their home state of Florida, this month’s Quinnipiac survey showed Rubio with an 81 percent favorability rating with tea-party supporters, while Bush’s was only 57 percent.
Rubio and Walker, on the other hand, are locked in a zero-sum game for the same pool of votes. Both have strong support from the activist wing of the Republican Party while being acceptable to the party’s establishment. In recent Quinnipiac polling of the Iowa caucus, my colleague Scott Bland found that Rubio and Walker’s support overlaps the most. (Rubio and Bush supporters are among the least compatible in the entire field.) Like Rubio, the poll shows Walker faring better with conservatives than with centrists. It’s no coincidence that Rush Limbaugh championed both of their campaigns on his radio show—they are young, accomplished conservative leaders who share a track record of winning tough elections.
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