Few doubt Bush, who’s expected to raise more money than any other candidate in the field, is built for the long haul. His ability to build a broader, more diverse coalition and his resources will enable him to run a campaign in much larger and more expensive states like Florida — where a week of TV ads airing statewide will run at least $3 million.

But first he must run the early state gauntlet, where the conservative grass roots in states like Iowa and South Carolina aren’t yet enamored of him. That makes New Hampshire, where Bush is better situated, a critical test. At the moment, Bush trails Walker in the polls in all of those three states.

“The early states don’t come easy,” said Stuart Stevens, who managed Romney’s 2012 campaign. “If you want to win the nomination, you’ve got to win one of the first four.”

Unlike Romney in 2012, Bush may not be able to count on his rivals collapsing and voters coming home to him – a less exciting, but safe choice – for lack of viable options.