Florida poll: Rubio 31, Bush 30

Rubio garnered 31 percent support from Republicans and essentially tied Bush’s 30 percent, according to a Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey conducted Tuesday through Thursday and shared exclusively with POLITICO. The other likely and announced presidential candidates polled in the single digits and 17 percent were undecided.

“I think Rubio’s rollout was pretty good and he probably got a bump out of it,” said J. Bradford Coker, Mason-Dixon’s pollster, who began the survey just after Rubio’s Monday announcement. “A good rollout is like a primary win: you get about three days of good media coverage and a little lift in the polls.”…

The poll is significant because it indicates Bush might be weaker than expected in Florida, a firewall state for the former governor who had good poll numbers when he left office in 2007.