The basis for that theory is in 2008’s elongated Democratic primary. Clinton, who made plenty of errors, was felled at last by bad luck. Most of the new-growth Democratic states had voted by the end of March, while most of Appalachia was being limited to the choice of Clinton or Obama. In state after state, Clinton obliterated Obama with white voters—Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Indiana. The non-white voters who might stay home or switch to the Republicans—they’d be overwhelmed by the returning whites.

The trouble with that theory comes when any of the Democrats’ tough 2014 races come under the spyglass. In every one of the tough red states, in federal races, Democrats separated themselves from Obama and ran as members of the coming Clinton restoration. In Kentucky, Democratic recruit Alison Lundergan Grimes challenged Senator Mitch McConnell as a proud “Clinton Democrat.” Two-term Senator Mark Pryor mocked his opponent, Tom Cotton, for making the campaign about the waning Obama presidency. “Who’s there the next four years?” Pryor asked. The answer was obvious: Hillary Clinton.

Yet Pryor and Grimes lost, after plenty of Clintonian intervention. “Bill was everywhere,” recalled Arkansas Republican John Boozman. The laying-on-of hands, the explicit promises that putting up with Obama would allow another Democrat to take over, did not save Pryor from a 19-point loss over all, and a bigger defeat among white voters.

Defeats like that have convinced Republicans that the great white voter migration is on, and there will be no reversal.