Which brings us back to Rubio’s path to the GOP nomination: It looks a lot like Walker’s — pulling together conservative and establishment Republicans. Neither Rubio nor Walker has the appeal with moderate and liberal Republicans that Bush does at this moment. Here are net favorability numbers from a March Gallup survey (which were similar to state-level Quinnipiac polls)…
Moderates and liberals make up about 30 percent of Republican primary voters. They account for closer to 35 percent in states that President Obama carried in 2012. These states hold half of the Republican primary delegates, as The New York Times’s Nate Cohn previously pointed out. It’s how John McCain and Romney were able to win the GOP nomination despite weak standings among very conservative voters.
So while the press usually lumps Rubio and Bush together because they’re both from Florida, Rubio and Walker are more likely to be in direct competition. Current polling aside, Bush’s bumper sticker reads something like “Very electable, and kind of conservative.” Rubio’s and Walker’s read “Conservative, and electable.”
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